Politburo meeting just ended, and policy direction with the December 2009 exactly the same central economic conference, and stressed the need to maintain the economic policies and accelerate structural adjustment, suggesting that the government maintain economic growth targets, still sparing no effort to strengthen the policy stimulus, economic data from 2009 indicate that real estate is the only pillar industries driving the economy, the current structure to ensure economic growth, resulting in real estate issues will become more prominent in 2010.
financial meeting from 9 It can be seen, limited central bank raised the reserve ratio twice, monetary policy has emerged from the pine into the tight trend, and financial investment demand is growing, from the industrial restructuring and efforts to increase fiscal spending point of view, so always reliance on real estate to maintain the local fiscal pressure gradually increased, so local governments rely very difficult to get rid of the real estate industry no doubt will lead to the high prices and the quality of economic growth and livelihood of the contradiction between the more severe.
playback of 09-related Data shows that in 2009 monetary policy is too loose, the credit supply 9.6 trillion (which is 2 times 08), 6 trillion annual increase in Indian currency, the central and local total 20 trillion within three years of financial investment plan due to over-reliance on real estate to maintain the local fiscal revenue, and local governments in the 6 trillion of credit, directly or indirectly, mostly invested in fixed assets, so the central bank and real estate related credit data and the fact that the difference is very obvious. from the whole When the real estate of the GDP in the contribution rate of more than 8% by the end of economic data can be seen in the national GDP reached 33.5353 trillion, an increase of 9.7% of the data, the central fiscal revenue 6.8 trillion, mostly from real estate should be industry, other industries are limited to the financial contribution, of which exports are a net loss, home appliances are also part of the fiscal subsidies cars to the countryside areas, the contribution rate of revenue is also quite limited, and ultimately the real estate industry's contribution to GDP ratio and the proportion of financial far higher than any developed country more than doubled, taking into account revenue from land sales of 70 large and medium cities in the proportion of revenue can be seen, 09 years of economic growth and fiscal revenue is based almost entirely on real estate economy.
09 in clarifying in economic structure and financial problems can be seen, limited liquidity pushed up 09 after housing prices, house prices in 70 large and medium cities widening income than serious, in which house prices in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai Guangzhou-Shenzhen-income housing by 70 calculation of property rights has reached the highest in the world, far more than the seriousness of the Japanese real estate bubble, so the investment and speculative demand by the end of 2009 basically were evacuated and moved to Beijing and Shanghai Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Hainan, in just two months time, the Hainan prices surge, resulting in Hainan property market within a month to more than 09 full-year sales prices have continued to rack up, pushing out another real estate bubble areas. from 09 urban and rural residents per capita disposable income and 70 big in urban housing data, and other coastal cities with the line of house prices in 70 major cities have basically lost the support housing demand, the Chinese economy to maintain liquidity to only be measured once the liquidity back, the inevitable collapse of the real estate , and liquidity is not back, the real estate bubble will continue to expand, take the game against transfer drum is economic collapse, showing that real estate has been converted from the economic pillar of the economic role of the killer, if it continues to disrupt the laissez-faire property investment and speculative demand, the economic crisis would be difficult to Avoid.
look current social capital investment and speculative real estate situation, the current capital of the country think that all swimming is the best real estate investments, and the 19th century tulip bubble of the crazy nature of exactly the same, while the local government knows The current per capita income can not support the common property, and deliberately push housing prices, is clearly the leader with the South Sea Bubble that year the same orientation, which is housing the greatest source of 5-year doubling, from the perspective of political economy, it is entirely local officials to ensure the performance of performance regardless of the consequences, therefore, can not get rid of GDP, as long as the performance evaluation standards, the difficulty of the central regulation of real estate will be greatly strengthened, but in fact against the GDP and the performance is not split, the error only in real estate pillar position, if the property can position everything will work out pillars, the final look, the root of the problem of real estate in the central government rather than local.
property investment channels to be the best case, private capital are rolling in the property market, solve the employment of the business entities that access to credit, they do not get private financing, especially private enterprises has always been plagued by lack of funds, and eventually slow industrial development entity. 30 years of reform and opening, private enterprises have to solve a large number of jobs, but lack of high-tech, not high-end products, poor product quality, leading to today's export sector is still dependent on low value-added products and to make a living situation, and because these companies are in the lowest level of the whole industrial chain, practitioners also slow growth in labor compensation, which is economic deadlock, if not open, the Chinese economy is difficult to get rid of the embarrassing situation surrounded by enemies, foreign demand, domestic demand would be impossible. and in the case of real estate investment in the people, the real estate industry have caused the biggest squeeze.
then the real estate market in support of high capacity and low prices, the really high prices can be permanently continuing it? from 79 years to today's per capita income growth, it is clear not, investment and speculative demand for real purchasing power in the absence of support Next, it obviously can not continue to pull the real estate development, and therefore to stabilize the current real estate development, housing prices continued to rise does not want to be able to promote urbanization, for nearly a decade of population may be urban growth rate of per capita income, comprehensive income of farmers per capita growth of 5.7%, migrant workers are up 6.8% of annual income, while the last five graduate students per capita income of migrant workers has not yet reached the level of urbanization, population is still far less than the annual income growth and the growth rate of per capita income of urban residents 8.7%, in the current housing needs of urban residents has basically been resolved cases, the disposable income of urban population of 70 large and medium cities is difficult to support, while the first-tier cities and some coastal cities, the rent was much higher than the international level has been more than 1 times long-term holders of real estate investment by type of ownership of 70 years have no income, only the short-term speculative behavior can help the mobility of monetary policy and local government and banks to profit from speculation, we can see the current real estate is only a speculative market, and commercial housing Residential property has been almost lost.
measured from the economic theory, speculation is no doubt about the market can not be sustained, so the current real estate market, high prices have been destined to be difficult to sustain, in any case to use monetary levers to stabilize housing prices, the final can only be futile.
here to see economic development, stability and development if you want only one way to go, is the price earnings ratio than the reasonable rent, housing demand and investment demand that can afford, and only so that it can revitalize the real economy However, nearly 10 years in front of the per capita income growth data and the real estate market demand groups constitute the structure has shown that the city wants to be low income people to support the current price of the real estate market impossible, so the slow growth in per capita income case, only the lower house can really solve the housing problem of real estate issues and people's livelihood, other ways are not feasible.
end real estate development process from the view in recent years, in addition to the economic pillar of the cause prices to surge, the surface pushing up housing prices is inflation, but they are actually speculative factors, and investment demand is the source of speculative demand driven, because of great speculation in real estate properties, would lead to price increases far exceeded the growth rate of per capita income, and gradual loss of property caused by high housing vacancy rate and hinder the release of housing demand, and excessive consumption of private capital, resulting in a single industry to private capital accumulation, leading to an imbalance of industrial structure, and would like to address urbanization issues and stabilize the real estate market and enhance economic growth the quality of the high prices of low-income must be addressed economic and livelihood issues, and from this paper and other relevant data and comprehensive analysis of data shows that removal of real estate investment property is the best way to solve all problems.
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