Sunday, December 5, 2010

TALKING 【China appears to be very funny, but it contains a lot of economic philosophy reveals a lot ...

 China's economy began to enter the magnificent moment.
The nineties, the government let the yuan against the U.S. dollar suddenly transferred to 8:1 from 2:1, from the beginning dead set sufficient to take advantage of family labor and resources to foreigners work. hey, this is the Chinese characteristics, adding that the RMB exchange rate is like playing the game, like how to adjust to how to adjust. I wonder if someone was preparing to go abroad, if the lazy delayed a day or something, the next day to the bank for U.S. dollars, a look at the exchange rate, certainly Kusi.
Since then, China's export industries to flourish again. exporters happy to hold dollars back, but we do not trust the government, after all, is the U.S. dollar old and beautiful things, holding the hands of the masses,cheap UGG boots, not good. So the Government to require the compulsory settlement, there are over dollars into RMB. that the RMB exchange to come from? easy to handle, printed it, but that some Well print quality, cost not much cost.
U.S. government took that foreign exchange reserves. very good export business in recent years, accidentally, foreign exchange reserves also went up like rockets. holding so many dollars, do something good? other countries also care about the international balance of payments, we are not, we think that money in his hand, is earned in the. However, it is the U.S. dollar does not start printing out what the printing press thing. the cost of printing the renminbi
own is not high, I think American people will not be printed on high-dollar cost of where to go, at best, may only be printed with high wages Bale currency.
, of course, does not rule out the government is to import Some things. such as high-tech stuff, but people do not trust other countries, do not want to sell you. it does import some products, it is not right, the domestic industry has not developed, good and foreign products cheap, then the impact on domestic enterprises too. So in the end, it is estimated that imports of raw materials up to, no way, the domestic to produce, not thing.
raw materials used, but more, but also keep up with the products produced sell multi-ah. So, all along, all the trade surplus, very good, and finally calculate, but also earned dollars out.
I think, the beginning of the export business to earn dollars to get the RMB exchange when the new plant must be thinking quickly, expand capacity to earn more dollars, more yuan enchant. But slowly,UGGs, that business is getting harder and harder, after all, see profitable, more factories The more open, but in Europe and America market capacity is so large, and the financial crisis has suddenly narrowed a lot. Moreover, people living at home are also people who do this, but people less nothing more. you continue to export low-cost for others, not that grab people's jobless. Although people are few, but could have trade unions, real trade unions, solidarity, a protest, a march, or even make a report, the Government must pay attention to it. So out of trade sanctions and even manhandled Chinese goods directly burned.
many export enterprises when a certain mind to not taste sour. back to count afterwards, estimates did not make much. a look at the books, the estimated tax is also paid a lot more, there are Many fees are only charged to look at the books on their own.
Thus, the factory is not expanded, and took the RMB to do something else, but to do what?
after the housing reform, with the commercial one that It is said that only a wealthy real estate owners to buy, no money for a policy of protection of housing. But the policy is set by the government, so naturally, the policy of housing did not give money, but only to protect the people in government. must not let stay own fields, foreign people, money or not, want ways to save money, fundraising, go to buy real estate.
had economic development, higher asset prices will follow. again drove us all to the housing reform buy a house, no way, ah, no room given no wife, so the rate of house prices to rise a bit faster. local government to look, nice, a real estate sold, GDP has increased so much, ah, all performance ah. And a land, he still has money. Thus, the more sales the higher the house, to take the more expensive the more, GDP numbers growing, the local government more cheerfully.
out soon but the problem , the ground is too expensive, the house is too expensive, developers and cash flow, but a lot of people come, then, the bank assisted him, and I'll give you a loan. afraid, there is secured with land, a house was secured, but also In the continuous appreciation goes to you, I also assured.
can think of, many rely on exports of rich people who made money the first one to see the house appreciated rapidly, almost one day a price, then head a turn and immediately yuan of export earned the city into the room. people get rich first so that the brain is, when a lot of humble people still think of all debts owed banks a butt when sleep is not practical, these guys must immediately discover loans with the bank's money to buy a house, then selling, to earn money faster.
stands to reason that economic development, money should be appropriate latitude. just like puberty, like high blood pressure, children long body, the blood should be sufficient, high blood pressure is also normal. so tall to grow taller.
However, in exchange for U.S. exports abroad, did not take out, all for the yuan at home, do not continue to expand production, but stare on the house. Bank of easy credit, but did not loose to the corporate body, in particular, the body of private enterprises, mainly state-owned enterprises and relaxed to the house. SOEs took the loan, around circles, many have invested in a house on the.
you say so much money to drop a house, how can house prices go up wind, smashing it.
the central government realized that a house like this, not a way to have control about the whole thing. So in 2008 before the financial crisis, house control up was. But Americans are not a good thing, his own house problems, and engage in the field of financial crisis.
old U.S. people do not Chinese people are so forward-looking, something all right are saving money to pension disease prevention. The financial crisis a result, are worried about the house to be repossessed in his hand a little reluctant to spend the money. good old U.S. companies doing business about to lay off it. Many people were unemployed, and even more reluctant to spend the.
exports to China all of a sudden go, so many sad up the factory.
a look at the central government, and now control the real estate was not a time, after all, involved in too broad a house, the house down, building materials, cement, including the renovation, What household appliances, and should continue. export is not good to do, and his own house and then down to a length, the economic how to play? no way, had to help up the house first.
that was not enough, after all, help about the house , but difficult to do the export, or loss of a piece. to encourage people more money out of it, so what car to the countryside, home appliances are out. but how much money the Chinese people, ah, after all, limited spending power.
export, consumption, investment, two Zhiwangbushang Troika, and had to rely on investment. so the central government out of the four trillion investment, this is not enough, the Government has to find a way real estate investment and borrowing have to invest. Thus, many high-speed rail, high speed, the airport or something, launched the.
four trillion, ah, bring about local government, is more than ten trillion, starting about the printing press, reform the banking system about the number, the money is drop out.
money in your hands, how to spend your final say, out, may not help you myself. certainly a lot of money, out wandering around, they have come to the house,
So, the scene appeared in 2009, the Government's project done in full swing, tumbling house prices go up. Poor people reluctant to spend, a look at the house also rose, control a few years, the more control the more up, so severely heart, bought. This year there are tax incentives to buy, not next year.
local government more money, although you can print, but can not release the courage, bypassing the Indian arm, ah, say there are local government then, no right to print ah. So can taxes, well, in 2009, the year the financial crisis, countries have dropped taxes to encourage business, with the exception of China increased the rate of increase has exceeded the rate of GDP. this is just out, and more dark it.
many private enterprises to look, so do not go dry. Well, the factory closed it.
private bosses who took his money, a someone to open a meeting, to discuss the future, how ever. Now there differences, some families choose to flee his country, immigrants out. sold in Shanghai a high-level, you can go to USA and Canada to buy villas, home to more comfortable. There part of the family, may be the root cause here, after all, out are not used to, so Na Zhaoqian, a talk, or move along it at home. house prices high point, speculation was high risk, you can fry the other, ah, so many do . As long as people need, pushed up as usual you have to buy it, I can make money, so, too many things start to stir up, and prices.
look at the old U.S. side, the financial crisis a result, drained so many financial institutions. what Americans, in addition to force, the text is the technology and finance. It was the old one in time of peace the United States leg, thigh, this danger today,Bailey UGG boots, saying that nothing can destroy it . the old United States began a rescue plan, it means money to you, let you look at the first flow through. Gradually, it seems 10 years old the first half of the U.S. economy improves some, but not enough time to celebrate it, the economy has fallen, and the unemployment rate is still so high.
came to rely on the old leadership of the United States voters, the voters are unemployed, do not you vote against ah Kill. So the leadership is very anxious, but also anxious not the industry, ah. mind a turn, to find a scapegoat is not the same thing. then found in China. We unemployment, are all Chinese competition. back and China, said the price of your product too low, too low wages You have to appreciate the yuan. China look back at the heart of a virtual, is ah, people are floating the exchange rate market determined. we is also floating, but it is we've set, and let it float to where to where, floating on the number of how much control of our strong.
stands to reason that the appreciation of the RMB is also a little longer. But the Chinese leadership to look back, no, ah, doing business in sub-band of the country, not a good practice, had only simple processing, better then yuan low, exports a price advantage. have been counting on them getting better, getting a little technical content. But ten years later, still the same ability to mimic not'd improve little things flying cottage. how the story ah, the original a few years ago in exchange for the yuan went to real estate promoter, who seriously engage in R & D ah.
cottage reason for people to buy things, is not a cheap map ah. Now the renminbi to appreciate, that the international community who would buy ah. If domestic exports fell by a large business, and that the unemployed are not cast ballots, at least to cast bricks. Thus, the central government can not appreciate not appreciation, can drag on drag, not want, can not ah.
another reminder urging the United States, a look useless, do not come to the actual point that he would go on to be elected. So now my dollar. Let you up, you do not rise, you do not rise, I banished.
either U.S. dollars and Renminbi is not the same, ah, someone is an international currency, a depreciation of the dollar, many commodity prices go up. So, gold, ah, oil, ah, ah soy, iron ore, ah, ah, what non-ferrous metals, also in the international community rose up. You called the factory of the world that China is not, ah, I'll raise your prices of raw materials, to see how you produce.
The devaluation of U.S. dollar, the dollar spread, funds are profit-driven, and in the United States not have a chance to to run the country of China has come for a class. Moreover there is a possible revaluation of the RMB, the dollar has come for six yuan, way back that bad of a revaluation, six yuan in exchange for two U.S. dollars can then say that is not good. profitable, come here.
so China's foreign exchange reserves went up, the hot money from abroad have entered.
Hot money came in and saw China be good fun. Na Zhaoqian domestic enterprises, businesses do not work hard, simply processing what the rest of the money is invested in the house, stock,bailey UGG boots, agricultural products above, and fried it not fun almost.
Why called hot money hot money, ah, definitely see the benefit on the map, no profit run, fast flow, friction means heat, so called hot money. it is certainly not doing industrial investment, and can only be speculation.
house is now a bit high, it is inevitable collapse. and turn the stock market down is still a good choice also, so this time, the stock market surged.
domestic funds in the stock market fall 6,000 points, when However, still remembers the pain, and many also fitted with. But the stock market is up, the house is not good fried, or came along. did not come in the capital, went to the other speculation, such as last year's garlic.
So now domestic situation is the sound of a piece of fried, CPI he kept going up, inflation is coming step by step.
central government saw this continues to die. people some money on hand is that, not what other assets, inflation is about What can not afford, if even miss a meal of rice have, not with you Jia.
put out, but the yuan, is thrown out of the water, ah, go out easily and came back said than done. Moreover, there are old U.S. capacity to make mischief at home.
not all of a sudden appreciation of the RMB, a sudden appreciation, 90% of the enterprises had to die, only the slow appreciation of the test, but a test, that you begin to rise, and the future should continue to rise, foreign more hot money came in, still trouble. said than done.
can not appreciate, then hike ah, recycling point of domestic liquidity. But it is difficult to add ah, add less of it, not be effective. plus much of it, there are a few companies do not credit it, would have bad days now, interest on loans for a raise, but also how to get ah, again there are so many loans to buy a house, also said than done. and an interest rate, foreign hotline more want to come. I'm afraid not recall his mobility much, outside of the hot money coming more and more the situation was not good.
seems to looks around, this inflation is a bit inevitable.

No comments:

Post a Comment